In one of our earlier articles, we incontestable
how the house field advantage was stronger in the 1st game of a series and qualified that by explaining how the opposing team has to travel to a visitor’s construction and may struggle in the 1st game.
I wanted to apply a few handicapping principles that we generally apply to the NBA such as the gambling against a team on zero-days rest angle.
House teams in the 1st game of a series are 54.4% winners if their opponent is playing back-to-back days but only 52.8% if their opponent has had 1 or more days rest. This is a significant advantage that is averaged over close to 5000 games.
If we condition this fact on our team not having to travel because its previous game was at home, the percentage increases to 975-801, 54.9%. In fact, blindly gambling house teams in this situation is +26 units over the past 6 years. Because of the large number of games in baseball, even as simple angles such as these do not get factored into the spread as they should.
As my “2005 YTD House Favorite Money Line Records” piece suggested, house teams perform more better against non-divisional rivals than against divisional rivals. Utilizing that knowledge, we improve this system to 55.6%, +39 units.
American League favorites that fall into this system are 226-113 (66.7%), +56 units over the past 6 seasons with no losing seasons. Even as although this is coincidental
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