Home Field Advantage in the MLB (Part 2): Tale of Two Halves
by:
Proloy Bhattacharyya
By Proloy Bhattacharyya
NFLSystems.com
proloy@nflsystems.com
September 10, 2005
House teams perform wholly otherwise
during the 1st half of the baseball season and the last half. I analyze baseball games otherwise
based on which half of the season it is and I wish demonstrate one such disparity.
Baseball is a long drawn out season with so galore games that the better effort from teams generally do not surface until the latter half of the season. As a result, the house field advantage is stronger during the 1st half of the season.
Over the past 6 seasons, baseball’s house teams have won 54.6% of their games during the 1st 81 games of the season ( including 55.8% this season ). During the second half of the season, baseball’s house teams have only won an average of 53.0% of their games. Though a 1.6% difference may not seem major, it still represents a 3.2% drop to a house team’s advantage. Also, 1st half house records have not been below 53% in any of the past 6 seasons.
If we only take into account division rivals, the house field advantage drops by exactly 4% from the 1st half of the season to the second.
This indicates that one ought to 1st try to find profitable road teams during the second half of the season. So far this season, road teams in the second half of the season are 179-153, +54.3 units. Last season they were 319-353, +16 units. Decreasing the sample size to a smaller number of games can actually yield immense profits for any bettor.
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